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AYON Coastal Intelligence

Research

What we study, measure and get wrong, in public. Every article names its sources, carries its evidence class, and publishes misses with the same prominence as matches. Estimates are models, not guarantees.

Analysis

It will happen again: reading the August–September 2026 window

A research analysis of six extraordinary weeks: a Himalayan glacier collapse that killed more than 1,300 people, a hurricane swell that filled Californian lineups and rescue logs on the same day, and the historic El Niño that forecasters say is now more likely than not.

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Field note

One number for eight beaches: field-verifying a hurricane swell

A research field note from Newport Beach, California, September 2026: standing on the sand during Hurricane Marie's swell, comparing what the wave model said with what the ocean did — and correcting the data that ships in AYON Wave.

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Finding

The last two kilometres: where global ocean data goes blind

A research finding that repeated itself until it became the program's central argument: the best public ocean-current data on Earth cannot see the strip of water where coastal sports actually happen.

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Case series

Reconstructing real drift cases on the Ceará coast

A research series: four real incidents from the Ceará coast, reconstructed with public ocean-current and wind data under frozen parameters — every result published, including the one the engine got structurally wrong.

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Open problem

No one has measured how kite equipment drifts

A research program's most honest sentence: the number that dominates every drift estimate for kite equipment has never been measured, by anyone, on any coast. This article defines the gap and the experiment that closes it.

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How this library works

Reconstructions run on public data with parameters frozen and hashed before scoring — one run, no tuning toward a known outcome. People in case studies are anonymised, and only facts already public in the press are used. Four words keep their exact meaning everywhere: a model is a computed estimate, never an observation; a field observation is a timestamped human report; verified means reviewed against source and repeat observation; confidence measures evidence strength — never a promise of safety.